India-US Thaw? Trump Softens Tone, PM Modi ‘Deeply Appreciates’ Gesture

During PM Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House this year, US President Donald Trump gifted him a book, ‘Our Journey Together’, with pictures from previous engagements. Maybe Trump was flipping through the book on Saturday that made him tone down his anti-India rhetoric and say he would always “be friends with Modi”. PM Modi was quick to respond to the first signs of warmth from the US amidst the strain in ties, saying he “reciprocates” Trump’s sentiments.

The exchange between the two leaders has the diplomatic corridors buzzing. Is a thaw between India and the US incoming? Or is it just a minor blip in the unpredictable world of Trumpian diplomacy?

POSITIVE SIGNS

If the latest is anything to go by, the signs are positive and can be seen as the first steps to a patch up.

This was PM Modi’s first direct statement to the US President since Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil, the highest on any country. Stalled negotiations for a trade deal over India’s red lines on opening up its agriculture and dairy sectors added to the chill.

A barrage of sharp and increasingly hostile statements by Trump’s officials, including Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro, who called India the “Kremlin’s laundromat” and said the Ukraine conflict was “Modi’s war”, added fuel to the fire. All this while India was waiting and watching.

On Saturday, Trump broke the ice, saying the US-India relationship was “special” and harped on the strong personal bond between him and PM Modi.

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The same man who just a day ago said on Truth Social that the US had “lost India and Russia” to “deepest, darkest, China” while posting a picture of Modi, Putin and Xi Jinping together.

It was clear that the viral, flashy pictures of Modi, Xi and Putin laughing and showing newfound bonhomie in Tianjin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit had hit a raw nerve in the US.

But on Saturday, Trump made a U-turn, saying he didn’t think the US had lost India to China.

The Prime Minister who has so far not directly taken on Trump, replied quickly.External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also said PM Modi attaches “enormous importance” to India’s relationship with the US.

HOW DID TIES GO SOUTH?

It was their first interaction since June 17, when the two leaders last spoke over the phone. During the call, PM Modi told Trump categorically that the US had no role in brokering the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May.

According to a report in the New York Times, PM Modi’s refusal to play along with Trump’s push for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination was the turning point.

The Prime Minister also refused Trump’s invitation for a stopover at Washington, wary of the US President pressuring him into a photo-op with Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir, who was invited for lunch at the White House at the same time.

Since then, ties have been on a free fall, with reports in foreign media saying that PM Modi refused to take Trump’s calls four times in the past three months.

Incendiary remarks against India flowed thick and fast from Trump and his aides, with the US President going to the extent of calling India’s economy “dead”. The politically tone-deaf remark came even as India surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy.

The remarks reflected Trump’s frustration with the pace of trade talks with India as well as New Delhi’s refusal to cut down on its oil purchases from Russia.

Trump had hoped that penalising a key trade partner would force Russia’s hand into ending the war in Ukraine, which the President had hoped to do within the first 24 hours of him assuming office. But, it paid no dividends.

INDIA’S TRUMP TRUMP CARD

All this while, India didn’t directly take on the US or criticise Trump. At his rallies, PM Modi never raised the tariff issue, but tactfully said the government would never compromise on the interests of its farmers.

It also gave PM Modi an opportunity to renew his ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ push. His message on Independence Day was clear - make in India and spend in India.

On the diplomatic front, India ramped up efforts to stabilise its relationship with China, which has been tense since the 2020 Galwan border clashes. Last month, Modi went to China for the first time in seven years as he and Xi attempted to reset ties.

Meanwhile, India also strengthened its ties with Russia, which offered India more oil discounts and opened up its market for Indian products. Pictures of Modi and Putin in the Russian President’s car during the SCO summit only added to the US’s discomfort.

The U.S. fully recognizes the importance of India's role as a counterbalance in Asia. This has been a goal for many U.S. presidents.

In fact, many people in the United States saw the bond formed by the three leaders in China as the first steps toward a "new world order," dominated by Asia - at a time when U.S President Trump's aggressive trade policies were already antagonizing the Chinese.

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CAUSTIC REMARKS TO MEASURED TONE

One simple photo of Modi, Xi and Putin laughing together in a huddle was enough for the U.S. to change their measured tone on India, and bid farewell to the caustic remarks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was the first out of the gate.

Trump also emphasized that the United States "gets along" with India very well. White House trade advisor Navarro was also able to temper his rhetoric after his comment about "Brahmins" profiting on the backs of and at the expense of the Indian people caused outrage in New Delhi.

TRADE TALKS CONTINUE

While the diplomatic row continues, trade talks have continued quietly in the background. Just recently, Union Minister, Piyush Goyal expressed optimism that India and the United States would finalize a trade agreement by as early as November.

On Friday, the MEA spokesperson also reiterated that India-U.S. relations were intact even if he spotted this opportunity to take Navarro to task for his sharply worded comment.

The comments are important, indicating that aside from aggressive bluster, bureaucratic and economic engagement has not completely ruptured.

The indications are that for the world's largest democracy and the world's oldest democracy, the relationship is far from broken. It remains to be seen over the next few months whether personal chemistry of Trump and Modi will see India-US relations back on track.

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