How Do BMC Numbers Stack Up? Math Explained as Mumbai Mayor Suspense Grows, Shinde Sena Guards Corporators

How Do BMC Numbers Stack Up?: Even if the BJP is now the largest party according to the BMC results, the real competition is just getting started. Fearing last-minute upheaval, ally Shiv Sena is protecting its corporators in a Bandra hotel ahead of the mayoral election with narrow margins.

Every five years, the 227-member BMC holds elections to choose corporators to represent their various wards in the civic body. A party or alliance must have at least 114 seats to create a majority and choose Mumbai's mayor.

The Shiv Sena, led by Shinde, has won 29 seats, while the BJP has won 89. With a total of 118 seats, the ruling alliance is only four seats over the halfway point. Even a slight change could make control of the civic house more difficult with these low margins.

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While the BJP has won 89 seats, its ally Shinde-led Shiv Sena has secured 29. Together, the ruling alliance’s tally stands at 118 – just four seats above the halfway mark. With margins this narrow, even a small shift could complicate control of the civic house.

Eknath Shinde, the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, has acted quickly as a result of this narrow buffer. An earlier HT story said that the Shiv Sena has moved its newly elected corporators to a hotel in Bandra.

According to party leaders, the action was taken to prevent last-minute defections or poaching. Even a few corporators switching sides might tip the scales because the numbers are tight and the stakes are great.

Once the majority is secured, the ruling side decides who will occupy the mayor’s chair. The process mirrors how the prime minister or chief ministers are chosen – elected representatives pick their leader from among themselves.

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BJP tops the chart, but ‘not happy’

Despite being the largest party in the Mumbai elections, the BJP's total still falls well short of a majority. The party is also concerned about this, especially in light of the expectations it established before the elections.

The BJP had originally intended to run for more than 155 seats and hoped to win between 120 and 125 before seat-sharing negotiations. However, Shinde is reported to have engaged in vigorous negotiations and won 91 seats for his party following the involvement of the party's central leadership, leaving the BJP with 137.

With its reduced seat share, the BJP revised its target to 110 seats but managed to win only 89.

“The party had inducted 11 sitting corporators from other parties, taking the tally of sitting corporators to 93, including its own 82, ahead of the polls. We could not even retain that number,” said a BJP leader, requesting anonymity.

Party leaders have attributed the underwhelming finish to a lack of coordination within the Mumbai unit, flawed candidate selection, and the failure to counter the “Marathi asmita and Mumbai pride” pitch made by Raj and Uddhav Thackeray.

Uddhav Thackeray keeps door ajar?

Despite losing control of the civic body, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray reiterated that it remained his “dream” to see a Shiv Sena (UBT) mayor in Mumbai and said that dream could still come true “if god is willing”.

A day after the results, Uddhav also made a cryptic remark suggesting that his party could still have its mayor in Mumbai, though he did not spell out how.

Leaders from the opposition camp also argue that the numbers tell a different story if the Shiv Sena had not split. Sena (UBT) leader Sunil Prabhu said the BJP’s success was possible only because the Shiv Sena was divided.

Former Congress leader Sanjay Jha also had the same view, in a post on X, he said, “If SS was united, the BJP had no chance in the BMC elections.”

He added that if the factions truly wanted to “restore the SS glory”, a patch-up could still force the BJP into the opposition.

The figures back the argument. While the BJP won 89 seats, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena secured 65 and Shinde’s faction 29. Together, the two Sena factions would have had 94 seats more than the BJP’s tally. An alliance with the Congress could have comfortably pushed them past the majority mark.

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