Donald Trump And Narendra Modi: The Curious Phase Of Diplomatic Distance

Donald Trump And Narendra Modi: In June, President Donald Trump had invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make a stop over in the United States during his visit to Canada but he refused.

The US subsequently called on Modi to join the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit this month as a way of celebrating the success of Trump in ending the war between Israel and Palestine. He refused, and despatched a subordinate minister.

Trump now is at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia where Modi has chosen not to attend but do it virtually. This is the second occasion in a decade that he skipped the ASEAN.

In November, the Prime Minister will also go to Johannesburg in South Africa to attend the G20 Summit. However, the president of the US has already indicated that he will not attend the event.

It is improbable that both leaders will have a face-to-face meeting at least a year since their last get-togethers in February in Washington DC which to some of them may seem bizarre. The Quad summit scheduling is also yet to be announced.

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After being heralded as a high-profile bromance between two strongman leaders, the relationship between the Trump and the Modi is now in a weird state of diplomatic detachment.

Meetings are fewer. Most recently, three telephone calls have been made between them with no definite deliverables. Public messages are effusiveness - Modi is applauding the efforts of Trump on peace, the latter is referring to him as a good friend, however, under the surface, it appears uncomfortable.

Why do they not get together--or at least seem not to get?

In 2019-2020 the relationship between the Modi and Trump was very public. The huge events like the Howdy Modi! rally in Houston and the Namaste Trump rally in India, were indications of a warm public optics of friendship.

Big talk between the two leaders: they were going to expand trade between the two countries, improve defence ties, and enter into energy agreements. In the case of India, Trump was an ally since New Delhi wanted to improve its international status; to the US, India was a strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific region.

Modi visited Trump in February when he was the President in the first half of this year. Both leaders promised to reunite in India the following time with Quad Summit. However, they started cracking in May.

Following the Pahalgam attack, Trump boasted that he had prevented the war between India and Pakistan after India made an operation named Operation Sindoor. Modi publicly denied this. By June the relationship had started to stretch - those cracks are now growing.

What has gotten the situation to this? There are a number of causes that have contributed

Trade and tariffs: Trump the US pushed to the limit on trade imbalances. India has been confronted with pressure and 50 percent tariffs to give in to US entry into India agriculture and dairy market. India will not compromise according to Modi.

Energy and Russia: India still purchases large amounts of Russian oil; the US requires cuts and this is a collision point. An example is that the Indian foreign ministry refuted a statement made by Trump that India will reduce Russian oil to nearly nothing.

Diplomatic optics: Both leaders possess national grounds, which demand aggression and not withdrawal.

Strategic independence vs alignment: India highlights its right to follow its own path, also known as de-hyphenation, and not necessarily as following the US.

All these factors combine to make an easy warm relationship, more difficult. But, here is the question now, why is it that Modi avoids Trump (or maybe the other way around)? Let’s explore main reasons:

Raising no social disgrace or expectations incongruity. As a case in point, in the preparations of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Modi opted to hold the meeting virtually instead of holding a face-to-face meeting with Trump, a move that was largely seen as evading face to face meeting with Trump. Indeed, the US President on his tour to Malaysia on board the Air Force One spoke once again about his arguments concerning the Indo-Pakistan ceasefire and Indian buying of the Russian oil.

Indian officials have refuted a phone call that Trump has said he had with Modi about Russian oil. Such open defiance of the appearances of a friendly relationship is counterproductive.

Modi is articulate and desires to demonstrate to his underbelly the fact that India will not submit to foreign pressure. It may be politically uncomfortable to meet Trump with demonstrations of obedience. India leans towards muscle optics.

Equally, Trump is a master of the perception of being on top, and when a meeting fails to offer him a tangible victory, he might be less interested.

India has leverage by not being too keen on meeting Trump. When not met with enough difficulty, it might appear that Modi is surrendering India.

In the meantime, the hard trade and energy stance of the US hints at the possibility of India not wanting to be in the box.

Leader-leader relationships tend to go beyond policy to personal relations. Bigger schemes (such as a schedule conflict) can be concealed by official explanations.

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As an illustration, when asked by the US to visit Sharm el-Sheikh, Modi had to decline the invitation on grounds of schedule, but analysts view deeper diplomatic undertones.

That meeting became quite a humorous instance of praise-fest of Trump that purportedly demonstrated that it was probably better that the Modi avoided it.

Trump summoned Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to the stage to give a speech in Sharm el-Sheikh where Sharif bowed to quite a noticeable flattery which is not a praise in diplomatic etiquette.

Even Sharif once more nominated Trump to the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump also invited Sharif on the stage to tell whether India and Pakistan will coexist very well whilst Sharif once again thanked Trump to bring the India-Pakistan conflict to an end in earlier May.

This would have been a quite uncomfortable situation to the PM, who has always informed Trump that the US had no part to play in the ceasefire call that was created between India and Pakistan in the course of operating Sindoor. The appearance of Modi in Sharm el-Sheikh event might have implied the chance of him listening to the false serious accusations made by Trump.

In brief: not attending a meeting is not necessarily about the lack of willingness to meet, but it is about the lack of desirable optics. India can keep its options open by remaining distant; the US can re-calibrate instead of just going on its gut instincts.

The fact that Modi did not attend ASEAN implies that some more efforts are yet to be made to finalize the India-US trade agreement. India is still subject to 50 percent tariffs by the US - and Trump keeps making baseless claims about India.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has added that the Indian will not be in a hurry to sign a trade agreement with a gun to its head. He opined that trade agreements should be taken as long-term alliances that are founded on trust. His remarks are an indicator of how India would like to be able to maintain strategic autonomy.

It is a diplomatic mark, the language employed, not in a hurry, no deal with a gun to our head, is a way of India to weigh between coming out with a deal and not looking like they are giving in.

In the future, it is possible to have two scenarios:

Scenario A- Reset and Re engagement.

Assuming that both leaders find the relationship too serious not to be allowed to founder, we could get a reboot: a meeting, a trade or defence declaration, and optics reset.

Scenario B -Again Drifting and Operational Diplomacy.

Alternatively, the personal warmth can also be reserved, but effective collaboration is through ministries and agencies as opposed to the fanfare between leaders. The India can also continue to build its alliances with Russia, China, and BRICS but has a stable relationship with the US but not to rely on the chemistry of a single leader.

The lesson is that chemistry of leadership is not all, however, it is important. Even in the absence of the summit selfie, these institutions, trade structures, strategic structures are important.

To conclude: The emergence of elusion by Modi and Trump is due to a complicated combination of trade friction, energy politics, strategic autonomy, prestige, and diplomatic signalling.

It is not to say that the India-US relationship is disintegrating - but to say that the convenient appearance of a personal bromance has been lost in the meantime, in favor of a more skeptical, business-like relationship.

See the headline, - did they meet? and the subtext, why did they or did they not? It is frequently in what has not been said, rather than what has been said.

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