Pahalgam Attack Fallout: How Indus Waters Treaty Suspension by India Could Impact Pakistan

Pahalgam Attack Fallout: India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) marks a significant escalation in its strategy following the Pahalgam terror attack.

The move signals a shift in how New Delhi may leverage transboundary water flows to increase pressure on Pakistan.

As treaty constraints lift, India will likely assert more control over its rivers, fast-track hydro projects, and reduce cooperation—developments that could have far-reaching implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, energy, and economy.

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What suspension of the Treaty means

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed on September 19, 1960 between then PM Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan President Field Marshal Ayub Khan, allocated the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — to Pakistan and the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — to India.

India, the upper riparian state, can stop sharing water data immediately, but stopping water to Pakistan cannot be immediate as we are in no position to do so. Importantly, it though leaves the threat hanging over Pakistan's heads.

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India's Indus Water Commissioner for over six years, told PTI," India, as an upper riparian country, has multiple options. This could be the first step towards the abrogation of the Treaty, if the Government so decides."

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"Although there is no explicit provision in the Treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of conclusion of the Treaty," he added.

In the past, almost every project has been objected to by Pakistan, the notable ones are Salal, Baglihar, Uri, Chutak, Nimoo Bazgo, Kishenganga, Pakal Dul, Miyar, Lower Kalnai and Ratle.

After the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, the government cleared eight more hydropower projects in Ladakh. The objections may no longer apply to the new projects. There are also operational restrictions on how reservoirs are to be filled and operated.

With the treaty in abeyance, these are no longer applicable. Saxena told PTI that India can stop sharing flood data on the rivers.

“This could also prove detrimental to Pakistan, especially during the monsoon when rivers swell. India will now have no restriction on storage on Western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and India can take several flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley,” Saxena added.

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