Mark Carney Set for Another Term as Canada PM, Likely to Lead Minority Government

Mark Carney: Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is likely to become the single-largest party in the Canadian federal election 2025 with a projected win in 159 seats, 13 short of the halfway mark of 172 in the 343-member House of Commons. In all probability, Carney will lead a minority government with the support of smaller parties.

In a victory speech before supporters in Ottawa, Mr. Carney stressed the importance of Canadian unity in the face of the threats coming from Washington. He also reiterated a belief he shared while campaigning: that the mutually beneficial system Canada and the U.S. had shared since World War II had ended. “We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” he said.

After polls closed, the Liberals were projected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservative Party, though it wasn’t immediately clear if they would win an outright majority or would need to rely on one or more smaller parties to form a government and pass legislation.

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Many ridings remained too close to call, with margins within about 100 votes.

While the Liberals gained some seats in Quebec, those gains were offset by possible losses in Ontario, mainly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and by their inability to make headway in the prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The Liberals were commanding a significant vote share, almost 44 percent—over 10 points higher than in the previous federal election in 2021. However, their principal rivals, the Conservative Party, weren’t far behind, with just over 41 percent support.

Former Cabinet Minister Arif Virani told CBC News that Carney ran an “ambitious” campaign and that this was reflected in the results.

This made for the most unusual election of this century, as it turned into a two-party race, with smaller federal parties like the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Greens suffering and unable to capture even 10 percent of the votes cast.

For the Prime Minister, it was a repetition of his mantra, "Canada Strong," which he has used effectively to counter threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

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Those threats—of tariffs and annexation—have fueled a turnaround for Carney and the Liberals after they were tottering at the end of 2024. Carney emphasized standing up to Trump in a video posted on social media Monday morning, stating, “This is Canada—we decide what happens here.

Let’s choose to be united and strong. Canada Strong.”

Trump inserted himself into the conversation again by posting on Truth Social, “Good luck to the great people of Canada.” But he went on to repeat his assertion that Canada would be better off as America’s 51st state.

That drew a retort from Poilievre, who posted, “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.

Canada will always be proud, sovereign, and independent, and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

“With votes now locked in, the question now focuses on voter turnout and motivation,” it added.

As votes were marked on Monday, Canadians were choosing between Carney’s offer of stability and Poilievre’s call for change.

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