Downward trajectory for the Indian labour market in last four weeks: CMIE

The Indian labour market is in its worst state since April-May last year, when the whole country was under lockdown, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a business information firm. During the second wave of COVID-19, the unemployment rate continues to deteriorate. The previous four weeks have seen a particularly dramatic deterioration in labour market circumstances, according to Mahesh Vyas, the chief executive officer (CEO) of CMIE.

The unemployment rate, which had reached 11.9 % in May 2021, continued to grow in early June, according to figures provided by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. As of June 6, 2021, the 30-day moving average unemployment rate was 13%. Furthermore, the labour participation rate, which had already dropped to 40%, has now dropped to 39.7%. In May, the most important labour market statistic, the unemployment rate, fell to 35.3%. By June 6, 2021, this had reduced to 34.6%.

However, due to the local lockdowns, Vyas expects a speedy recovery of the informal employment that was lost in the unorganised sectors. However, irrespective of the lockdowns, there has been a persistent decline in employment, according to the CMIE CEO.

Since January 2021, a total of 36.8 million non-farm jobs have been eliminated. Daily wage workers account for 23.1 million of this total. According to the CMIE, 8.5 million people are salaried employees, while the remaining are self-employed.

He believes that regaining the remaining jobs or returning to the employment levels of 2019-20 would require a significant revival in the Indian economy. "The unlocking procedure is estimated to restore around two-thirds of the jobs lost during the May 2021 lockout. That's 17 million jobs out of the 25 million non-farm employment lost this month" Vyas stated.