Assam Elections Scenario Deciphered: BJP seems to be in troubled waters in Assam
Two formidable opposing fronts will make BJP’s quest for power difficult in the upcoming Assam elections
Hagrama Mohilary, Assam 'Kingmaker', Challenges BJP
With a formidable reputation of being ‘a kingmaker in Assam’, Hagrama Mohilary, the chief of the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), yesterday formally announced that his party has joined the Mahajath (or Grand Alliance). The Congress led Grand Alliance also includes the once-rival Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front), the most vocal opponent of CAA-NRC - Anchalik Gana Morcha and the three Left parties, the CPI, CPI(M), and the CPI(ML).
In light of their electoral chances becoming brighter and with ever increasing partners in the alliance, Assam Congress chief Ripun Bora said, "Assam's destiny is about to change for the better. Many tributaries join together to make a strong river."
It is interesting to note that Congress fought the 2016 Assembly elections, which was won by BJP, without both AIUDF and BPF. Technically, though still in alliance with the BJP till the end of this Assembly's term, Hagrama Mohilary of BPF thundered, "How can they (BJP) win when I am not on their side? We will have to see the exit of the BJP in Assam," while addressing a joint press conference with Congress and other Mahajath participants.
Assam has a total population of around 35 per cent Muslims. At least 34 seats in the state are decided by the voting pattern of the minority community. AIDUF received most of its strength due to population-based voting pattern. Even though its tally of seats was reduced to 13, it still is a formidable force in the state politics.
Over the past three state polls, since the BPF's inception in 2005, the alliance it has sided with has gone on to win the polls. BPF with 12 seats in the assembly, of which 3 held cabinet positions, and a sizeable no of voters scattered across the state has always been a very politically astute party. Its inclusion in the alliance will help further strengthen the Mahajath.
The first fissure in the BJP-BPF alliance emerged in January 2020 at the signing of the Accord with the surrendered National Democratic Front of Bodoland. The Accord which had provisions for delimitation of Bodoland Territorial Region boundaries, and the discussions that led to this bypassed the BPF that was still at the helm of the Bodoland Territorial Council.
Later, BJP fielded its own candidates against the BPF in the BTR Council elections last December and formed a Bodoland Council with the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Gana Suraksha Party. The BPF, despite emerging as the single-largest party, was left behind by four seats.
This alliance is being eyed by among others, Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD party. With a population of around 3% of those in Assam who originated from Bihar (with a sizeable number of Yadavs) the Bihar party can make a major change in the electoral prospects of candidates in as many as 10 to 12 assembly seats. If that was not all, Mr Mohilary also called upon other regional parties such as Raijor Dal and the Asom Jatiya Parishad to join the Mahajath.
Apart from Mahajath, Asom Jatiya Parishad and its alliance with Raijor Dal is the other big force in Assam politically for the upcoming Assembly Elections. Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) was formed last year by the coming together of All Assam Students' Union (AASU) and Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chhatra Parishad (AJYCP). Both these students’ bodies have been attacking the government on its NRC-CAA laws, sometimes violently.
The AJP has formed a regional alliance with Raijor Dal formed by jailed anti-CAA leader Akhil Gogoi's Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and 70 organisations. Together they might be able to make a major dent in the electoral prospects of BJP, as those who are siding with AJP alliance are the ones who had en-masse voted for the BJP led alliance. This has lareday given many a sleepness night to both the state level and national level BJP stalwarts.
Even though no formal announcements have been made, AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi will definitely give a calculated thought to BPF chief’s call to join the Mahajath.
Assam will see three-phased assembly polls from March 27 to April 6, with results to be declared on May 2.
Of the total 126 seats in Assam Assembly, elections to 47, mostly in upper Assam, will be held on March 27, while 39 in Barak Valley and central Assam will go to polls on April 1 and voting in the remaining 40 seats in lower Assam will be held on April 6.
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