Nearly 2 billion population to face water scarcity when the Hindu Kush Himalaya's ice melts: Report

According to a new United Nations Development Program (UNDP) assessment, over two billion people in South East Asia, which include India, Nepal, and Pakistan, are likely to suffer water and food crises as a byproduct of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain ranges shedding up to two-thirds of its ice by 2100.

According to the study, glacier melting would not only harm access to drinking water, but would also limit the amount of water available for agriculture, affecting food security. Furthermore, it is predicted to have an influence on hydroelectricity generation, tourism, and other areas that support and sustain human existence in a region with a population of two billion people.

Further, a study by the World Bank, emphasised the role of black carbon in hastening the melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan area. Black carbon, which is formed as a result of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, contributes 460-1,500 times more to global warming than carbon dioxide. When suspended in the atmosphere, it transforms incoming solar radiation to heat, and when deposited on glaciers, it lowers their capacity to reflect heat, causing melting to accelerate.

The report states that “The South Asian mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Karakoram, and the Hindu Kush, which include about 55,000 glaciers, store more freshwater than everywhere else save the North and South Poles.” In addition to that, these glaciers “help to moderate flows in the region's major rivers by providing a source of meltwater in hot, dry years and storing water during colder, wetter years.”

Further, as glaciers melt, weather patterns in the region are expected to shift, making inhabitants more exposed to catastrophic climatic events. “Black carbon and glacier melting in the Himalayas, as well as irregular rainfall in the mid-mountains, usually result in landslides, floods, and flooding in the lowlands,” said Maheshwar Dhakal, joint secretary, Ministry of Forests and Environment, Nepal.

Though, the World Bank research does emphasise that if we can reduce black carbon deposits quickly, we might well be able to considerably halt glacial melting. “We can decrease glacier melt by working together to reduce the black carbon deposits that are hastening ice thinning... Regional collaboration to conserve these resources would yield significant rewards for the region's health and well-being,” Hartwig Schafer, World Bank vice president for South Asia explained.

Unlike other greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide, black carbon, as per the study, is a “short-lived pollutant” that may be “eliminated from the atmosphere if emissions are reduced.” Existing initiatives to reduce emissions, such as increasing car fuel economy requirements or replacing diesel cars with electric cars, may not be sufficient, according to the analysis. Instead, it advocates for tougher laws to reduce emissions from industrial brick kilns and home use of solid fuels like wood and coal, which are estimated to account for 45-66% of black carbon emissions within the province.

While we may be able to save some people's lives and livelihoods by tight rules and diligent efforts, experts warn that some damage is unavoidable. “Even if we stopped warming the climate right now, we would likely lose 20% of the glaciers in high alpine Asia. And that is because it is like a train that needs to be stopped,” said Jemma Wadham, head of the Cabot Institute for the Environment at the University of Bristol, in a statement at the World Bank report's introduction.

Researchers are concerned that governments may not be prepared to deal with even that, let alone the consequences of the mountain ranges losing two-thirds of their ice. “[T]hese variation in water accessibility and extreme weather are not being matched by equally rapid infrastructure, policy, and behaviour changes that might assist secure the future provision of food, housing, and livelihoods for two billion people,” said Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP's regional director for Asia-Pacific, emphasising the need to “step up both adaptation and mitigation efforts.”

With delayed prompt action, socioeconomically disadvantaged populations would be further harmed by the water problem. “We are on a frightening road that may end in deeper inequality and a bigger divide between the haves and have-nots who will face the burden of this climate emergency,” Wignaraja stressed.