Kim Jong Un Faces Potential Annihilation in Various Korea War Scenarios

Kim Jong Un Faces Potential Annihilation in Various Korea War Scenarios: In recent months, some prominent analysts began warning that Kim Jong Un might actually be serious about preparing for war after decades of empty threats.

Kim, who has been in power for 13 years, is now testing the boundaries of what his adversaries will tolerate more aggressively. As North Korea's nuclear capabilities and missile program advanced rapidly, the 40-year-old dictator declared in 2024 that he had the right to "annihilate" South Korea and removed the goal of peaceful unification from its constitution.

It would normally be dismissed - Kim could just be posturing ahead of South Korean elections on April 10 - but two prominent analysts say this time Kim isn't bluffing.

In early 2024, former CIA officer Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker wrote on 38 North, which focuses on North Korea, that Kim Jong Un had made a strategic decision to go to war, just like his grandfather in 1950. They did not forecast how soon that could happen.

The views of Carlin and Hecker are not universal: Most analysts argue that a full-scale attack would be a suicide attempt, inviting a response from South Korea and the US that would end the Kim family's nearly eight-decade reign. It's just the kind of war the world could stumble into - with potentially devastating consequences for not only the Korean Peninsula, but for the global economy and, particularly, the chip industry.

In January, South Korea's Defense Ministry made a blunt statement: "The Kim regime will meet its end" if it pursues all-out war.

North Korean forces invaded South Korea in 1950, catching the US off guard. The US and South Korean forces counterattacked, resulting in a stalemate.

For any provocations, South Korea has repeatedly threatened to punish North Korea, and has responded with military drills, often involving the US.

The aggressive stance of North Korea towards South Korea could lead to a peripheral attack on Seoul, where half of the country's 51 million people live. A brief conflict could disrupt global supply chains and disrupt the global economy in the demilitarized zone, which accounts for 70% of South Korea's economy. Over 100,000 casualties could be caused by a one-hour barrage of artillery and rockets against Seoul.

North Korea would likely start a war by striking Seoul's key military, political, and economic targets with artillery and trying to impose huge economic costs as soon as possible. But their advantage in striking first would not last.

The military budget of South Korea is bigger than the entire sanctions-ravaged economy of North Korea.

The United States and South Korea would have absolute air superiority from the very beginning of a war with North Korea because North Korea's fighters and submarines are Soviet-era.

Unless South Korea strikes in the first few waves, North Korea's cities will be destroyed, the US Defense Intelligence Agency said.

A "bloody nose" strike by the US and South Korea was discussed during the Trump administration due to North Korea's switch to solid-fuel rockets.

Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Seoul, said that if Kim misjudged the US and South Korea, he might use a nuclear weapon to end his regime.

By using bunker-busting missiles and fighter jets, South Korea would target North Korea's command centers, weapons storage sites, rocket launchers, radars, bunkers, missile silos, and nuclear facilities.

South Korea's Three Axis plan, which includes preemptive strikes, full-scale assaults, and taking out Kim, has not been held back by Yoon.

In the long run, Kim seeks to have between 100 and 300 nuclear weapons in North Korea.

Kim's regime would almost certainly be over if he used nuclear weapons. The US would be able to respond quickly and overwhelmingly if he used nuclear weapons.

Kim Jong Un will pursue a strategy of coercion through 2030, according to the US National Intelligence Estimate.

Kim's more heated rhetoric is considered saber-rattling by most analysts, intended to influence South Korean elections or unsettle the West.

Historically, Beijing has been Pyongyang's closest ally, but its influence on North Korea has long been limited, even when Beijing cooperated with the US on the UN Security Council to condemn the North's nuclear development.

In addition to diversifying his economy away from China, Kim has already sold some of North Korea's artillery stockpiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

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