Elections in states and their state of affairs

More than 18 crore are eligible to vote in these elections -- CEC

While the state elections have been declared in five states that include Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Assam and Bengal as the Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora declared today, a state of restlessness and fear has gripped the states and its people, political whiplashing and apprehensions notwithstanding.

Not only because this is first such set of elections that is happening amid corona spread fear and partial lockdown but also the vaccination drive that begins March 1 and we have no date for its conclusion yet. Though the election results would be declared on May 2.

The Election Commissioner himself cited fear of violence especially in Bengal as Bengal polls, for the first time in eight phases this time. Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee lashed out at the Centre over the longest ever vote. She asked "Why is one district (24 Paraganas) voting in three rounds? Has this been done at the insistance of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah? She also asserted, “I will defeat them you all in your conspiracies.”

The CEC though defended eight rounds but said: "We had an assessment of law and order on several factors. Last time it was seven phases so eight is not a big deal."

This time around the Bengal CM has reasons to get baffled. She has quite a high stake and assumingly at a risk as she faces the toughest challenge from the BJP which has been quite successful in making a presence hole in her territory.

The two time CM, well addressed as the tigress of Bengal has been losing her trusted strategists to the lotus party. Though she also accuses the BJP of using central agencies to hound her party men with multiple investigations, her signature fearlessness has quite been a symbol of strength for her supporters.

She has declared, “Khela Hobe (Game will be on)," as her Trinamool Party's slogan, while the BJP is calling for "poriborton (change)".

In Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK will face its first state election since the death of its charismatic and powerful leader J Jayalalithaa. The opposition DMK-Congress had a clean sweep in 2019 national election. The air is that this sweep will much be the same this time too. Since the BJP has less hold in TN.

The BJP is looking towards Tamil Nadu’s neighbour Puducherry this time. It was placed under President's Rule after the Congress government collapsed. And therefore it seems that BJP has already considered it its own territory given the President is from its own ally RSS. This is the 7th time the state is imposed President’s Rule after 1968.

In the last round of polls in 2016, the Congress could win only Puducherry but the party this week lost power in the Union Territory after multiple resignations - a trend seen in other states like Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka where Congress governments crashed because of defections.

Two of the five MLAs who quit the Congress, pulling it below the majority mark, have joined the BJP and more may follow.

The BJP is also campaigning aggressively to retain power in Assam, where it won for the first time in 2016, beating the Congress. But its game plan could quite be a spoiler due to mismanagement in hounding people via CAA, NRC and NPA in the early months of last year.

In Kerala, it's an intense battle for the ruling Left-Led front and the Congress-led opposition coalition. The voters have alternated between the two in past state elections. The CPM hopes to continue its gains in the only state it rules after a victory in the recent local body elections.

This time Kerala will be a space to see. The BJP has is prepping to challenge the ruling Left-led coalition in a big way. As it has roped in "Metro Man" E Sreedharan and other high profile faces in the coastal state. Close to 100 Left workers joined the BJP yesterday.