Jammu & Kashmir Polls: How 5 LG-Nominated MLAs Could Be Gamechangers for BJP in a Hung Verdict

Jammu & Kashmir Polls: Sofi Yusuf, BJP Jammu and Kashmir Vice-President, said on Monday that the 5 MLAs to be nominated by the LG will be from the saffron party.

“All candidates will be from the BJP — Ashok Kaul, Rajni Sethi, Sunil Sethi, Dr Fareeda Khan and our Mahila Morcha leader Sanjita Dogra. It’s our government at the Centre and we will give the names. We are getting these five seats," said Yusuf.

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Congress said such nominations without consulting the elected members will go against the “mandate of the people”.

With exit polls indicating a hung assembly here’s how these 5 seats can be a gamechanger.

Senior BJP Leader Sofi Yousf claims that all 5 MLAs to be nominated by LG will be BJP Leaders and he even names them.

Open misuse of the institution and the Centre’s powers to alter the mandate.. pic.twitter.com/JS5qJpxRUv

— J&K Congress (@INCJammuKashmir) October 7, 2024

The 3 phase elections for 90 seats in Jammu & Kashmir concluded on October 1, the first assembly polls in the union territory since 2014. Results will be out on October 8 (Monday).

The provision to nominate 2 women existed in the erstwhile state of J&K. As part of the amendments made to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, the Home Ministry advised the 5 nominations — 2 for Kashmiri Pandits and 1 for Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) refugees, and 2 women. They were approved by the LG.

The provision was added in the Reorganisation Act in 2023 on the recommendations of the delimitation commission headed by justice (retired) Ranjana Desai, which increased the size of the assembly and the majority threshold to 48 seats.

#WATCH | Jammu and Kashmir: Congress leader Ravinder Sharma says, "Congress and National Conference believe that we will have enough majority to form the government. Counting of votes will take place on October 8. For example, one alliance gets 47 seats out of 90 seats and… pic.twitter.com/tjF9YIpI73

— ANI (@ANI) October 4, 2024

This provision exists only in the assemblies of union territories of Puducherry (3 nominated MLAs) and Jammu & Kashmir (5 nominated MLAs).

J&K has 63.45% voting percentage, higher than the April-June Lok Sabha elections.

According to Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll, NC-Congress alliance may win 35-40 seats. BJP may get 20-25 seats. Independent candidates may get 12-16 seats, more than PDP which may get 4-7 seats.

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Gulistan exit poll says it’s a close contest, NC-Congress combine may get 31-36 seats, BJP may get 28-30. Independent candidates may be the kingmakers with 19-23 seats and PDP may get 5-7.

C-Voter survey says NC-Congress coalition may get 30-48 seats, BJP may get 27-32. PDP may get 6-12 seats, same as independents who may get 6-11 seats.

People’s Pulse survey says NC-Congress combine may win 46-50 seats, BJP may get 23-27. PDP may get 7-11 seats and independents 6-10. The 5 nominated MLAs will take the total number of seats to 95.

So NC-Congress need 48 elected MLAs to form the government and BJP need only 43 elected MLAs to reach 48.

But Ravinder Sharma of Congress said LG should act only on the advice of the council of ministers which will be formed after the election.

Sharma told ANI, “The Congress and NC believe that we will have enough majority to form the government. Counting of votes will take place on October 8. For example, one alliance gets 47 seats out of 90 seats and another alliance gets 43 seats. 46 seats are required to form the government. LG has the right to nominate five members. So if the Governor nominates these five people before the formation of the government on the instructions of the Centre or anyone else, then the number of 43 will become 48 and the alliance which has got 47 seats, which has got the mandate from the people of Jammu and Kashmir, will be in minority. This will be a betrayal of the mandate of democracy…So we have requested the LG not to do anything which is against the mandate of the people."

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