Haryana Elections 2024: Understanding Exit Polls and How They Are Conducted

Haryana Elections 2024: Exit polls for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections will be out today. Results will be declared on October 8.

In Haryana, 1,031 candidates are contesting in all 90 seats and 20,632 booths have been set up for single phase election.

Meanwhile 3.9 million people voted in 5,060 booths in three phases of Jammu and Kashmir elections, the first in 10 years, so exit polls are important to understand the trends and changes in voter behaviour.

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As soon as voting ends today at 6 pm, Today Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, Times Now and Poll of Polls will start predicting.

An exit poll is a survey conducted after voters are interviewed to gauge the overall response to a candidate or party in a constituency.

Though exit polls are not always accurate, they give an idea of where the swing is and what to expect.

Exit polls rely on the type of sampling, margin of error and voter honesty and willingness to participate as well. Exit polls can help us understand the voter behaviour.

Exit polls are more representative of the overall mood of the voters as they are conducted on the day of voting, whereas opinion polls are conducted before voting starts and are far more subjective.

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Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong. Exit polls are conducted on polling day itself after people have voted.

Agencies create questionnaires that ask people about their voting preference and also factor in demographic details like age, gender, religion and others which could influence their voting. The questionnaires are often close ended so that the data can be tracked exactly.

Then to make the sample as representative as possible, polling stations are chosen across different regions so that voices from all areas are heard as much as possible. Different organisations use different methods of sampling - randomised or strategic sampling to get the best possible picture of what the results could be.

This data is then collated and analysed to show trends and patterns that favour a candidate or party in a constituency or how a particular demographic votes.

Though exit polls are conducted by private agencies, they are regulated by ECI. As per ECI rules, exit polls can be telecast by agencies and websites only after the final phase of polling to avoid influencing people. Any violation of this rule can lead to imprisonment up to 2 years and fine.

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