Global Trade Forecast: WTO slashes global trade forecast by one percent

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has said that the growth rate of world trade is likely to slow to one percent in 2023 due to global uncertainties. Further, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected a 3.5 per cent growth in global trade this year, compared to 3 per cent estimated in April.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a statement that the pace of world trade is expected to slow down in the second half of 2022. It is expected to decrease further in 2023. The World Trade Organization (WTO) says that these days the global economy is facing several shocks one after the other.

Economists forecast that global trade will be 3.5 percent in 2022. This is slightly better than the 3 per cent forecast in April. However, for 2023, economists are expecting only one percent growth. This is well below the previous estimate of 3.4 percent.

According to the World Trade Organization, due to slow growth in major economies due to various reasons, there may be a slowdown in import demand. Rising energy prices due to the Russo-Ukraine war in Europe will reduce household spending and raise manufacturing costs. It further states that in the United States, monetary policy tightening will affect interest-based spending in sectors such as housing, automotive and fixed investments.

China is battling the COVID-19 outbreak and production crisis coupled with weak external demand. Rising import bills for fuel, food and fertilizers can lead to food insecurity and debt crisis in developing countries.

This forecast is not good for India. These days India wants to increase its exports. There has been a decline in exports due to decline in sectors such as engineering, ready-made garments, textiles and rice. The country's total outbound shipments declined by 3.52 per cent to USD 32.62 billion in September, while the trade deficit widened to USD 26.72 billion. This is according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of Commerce.